Bilol Saidumarov
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Uzbekistan: the quiet country that ended up in the middle

May 30, 2026 · 6 min · geopolitics, economics, IT
TL;DR
  • A trade hub for a thousand years, silent for three hundred — now back at the crossroads.
  • The world is tense. Here, it’s quiet. That quiet has a price.
  • Young people, three languages, and the minerals without which no one ships chips. The map lines up for the first time in a long while.

In 2021 an investor from Singapore asked me where Tashkent was. I drew him a map on a napkin.

In 2025 the same person opened a 40-person office here. He didn’t ask for the map again.

Something changed — not really in Tashkent, but around it. Worth explaining what.

Past: the country that connected the world

Uzbekistan isn’t a new name on the map. It’s a very old name the world temporarily forgot.

A thousand years ago, Samarkand and Bukhara were what Dubai airport is today: the point everything flows through. Silk from China, spices from India, silver from Europe, ideas from Persia. Venetian merchants sat next to Yuan-dynasty envoys, and both treated Samarkand as the capital of the world they knew.

Ulugh Beg built an observatory that put European astronomy two centuries on the back foot. Algebra and algorithm — words we say every day — are transliterations of two men who worked in Khorezm.

Then, in the 16th century, the ocean got faster than the caravan. Vasco da Gama rounded Africa, trade moved to water, and Central Asia slipped off the main current. For three hundred years it was a periphery — of empires, of other people’s interests, of other people’s maps.

Present: quiet against a loud background

Open a major-country news feed today. Wars, sanctions, tariffs, migrants, protests, rhetoric.

Now look at the map around Uzbekistan. To the east, China — largest trading partner, capital inflow, new railways. To the north, Russia — a million workers, a shared language, an open border. To the west, Turkey and Iran — culturally close, investing actively. To the south, Afghanistan — a hard neighbor, but with a pragmatic working channel. And inside the same circle: the US, Japan, Korea, the EU, India, the Gulf states, each with their own program.

It’s called multi-vector policy. At the country level that sounds like a dry term. At the founder level it means: you can ship a container to Moscow in the morning, have lunch with a Shenzhen delegation, and sign a contract with an American fund in the evening — and nobody demands you “pick a side.”

There aren’t many such places left in 2026. Singapore, the UAE, partly Kazakhstan — and Uzbekistan.

What sits underground

A boring list, but without it the picture doesn’t hold.

  • Uranium — top-5 reserves in the world. No uranium, no nuclear plants. No nuclear plants, no AI data centers.
  • Gold — top-10 globally. A reserve asset the market is looking at again.
  • Copper and silver — the literal wiring of the green transition. Every EV is tens of kilograms of copper.
  • Rare earths — what you need for chips, magnets, batteries. Today 90% of global supply runs through China — and everyone is hunting for alternatives. Uzbekistan is on the short list.

This isn’t a resource curse. It’s leverage. Oil didn’t work out because oil was the commodity of the previous era. Uranium, copper, and rare earths are the commodities of exactly the era everyone plans to live in for the next twenty years.

A young country with three languages

The median age in Uzbekistan is 28. In Germany it’s 47. Japan, 49. Italy, 48. When Berlin starts mass-retiring in a decade, Tashkent will only be defending its theses.

These young people speak three languages on average. Uzbek — native. Russian — because of school, grandma, and the next-door market. English — because of YouTube, Coursera, and remote work. Less often, but increasingly — Chinese and Turkish.

A multilingual 25-year-old engineer in 2026 is a rare species. Uzbekistan produces them at industrial scale.

Future: the window won’t stay open forever

Stack it all up: safety, the minerals chips and batteries need, young people, three languages, multi-vector policy, digital infrastructure being built for the first time, an IT Visa, low taxes — and try to name a second country with this combination in 2026. I tried honestly. Couldn’t.

Windows aren’t forever. In ten years it’ll be more expensive to live here, more crowded in the offices, slower with licenses. That’s what happened to Estonia in the 2010s, Dubai in the early twenties, Lisbon shortly after. Every window closes. This one closes slowly — but it closes.

This isn’t a “buy property now” pitch. It’s an observation: a country that was a hub for a thousand years and silent for three hundred is back at the intersection of the main lines. And for the first time in a long while — not in spite of its geography, but because of it.

What to do next
  • If you’re building something for the next 20 years — it’s worth flying in once and seeing it. The napkin map doesn’t tell the whole story.
  • Comparison to Dubai, Europe, and the old hubs — in the next post.
  • If you recognized your own problem in this — message me on Telegram.